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increase in the number of non -white males
<br />over 60 (approximately 1,338 new persons),
<br />the majority of seniors will continue to be
<br />female and white.
<br />Children
<br />By 2030, Orange County's child population
<br />will number 45,851 children (persons aged
<br />0 -17 years). This represents a doubling of
<br />the current (1997) children's population
<br />figure of 22,912.
<br />As the figure below shows the percent
<br />increase in the number of children is greater
<br />during the next three decades than during
<br />the previous 28 years.
<br />Figure 4: Increases in Orange County
<br />Child Population
<br />Ages
<br />1970
<br />1997
<br />2030
<br />% Change
<br />1,930
<br />1,573
<br />3,503
<br />Cheeks
<br />70 -97
<br />97 -30
<br />0-4
<br />4,370
<br />6,430-
<br />12,670
<br />47%
<br />97%
<br />5 -10
<br />5,380
<br />7,930
<br />14,810
<br />47%
<br />87%
<br />11 -13
<br />2,720
<br />3,530
<br />6,500
<br />30%
<br />84%
<br />14-17
<br />3,400
<br />4,600
<br />7,590
<br />35%
<br />65%
<br />Total 15,870 22,912 45,851 44% 100%
<br />One of the unfortunate consequences of
<br />projected increases in the child population
<br />is parallel growth in the incidence of
<br />children in poverty. Assuming continuation
<br />of the ten year trend, (1980 and 1990), by
<br />2030 6.9% of children in the County will be
<br />living in poverty. This percentage is down
<br />from 1980 and 1990 (11.4% and 10.3 %'
<br />respectively), but the actual number of
<br />children living in poverty will have
<br />increased from approximately 1,800 in 1980
<br />and 1990, to over 2,850 in 2030.
<br />IMPACTS
<br />Impacts refer to anticipated increases in
<br />residential and . non residential acreage,
<br />housing and public services resulting from
<br />projected population and employment
<br />growth.
<br />4
<br />Dwelling Units
<br />In order to house projected population, a
<br />total of 25,656 dwelling units will need to
<br />be constructed between 1998 and 2030. The
<br />number of dwelling units required by
<br />township and municipality is highlighted in
<br />the figure below. It is important to note that
<br />this distribution does not take into account
<br />land availability. Also, in keeping with a
<br />goal of projecting based on past trends,
<br />these numbers do not take into account
<br />future policy choices. Thus figures for
<br />municipalities, particularly, Mebane and
<br />Hillsborough, do not reflect changes in
<br />policy that may stimulate development
<br />activity beyond past levels. Additionally,
<br />this distribution is based on the assumption
<br />that future dwelling units would be located
<br />in the same proportion as units constructed
<br />between April 1990 and June 1998.
<br />Figure 5: Required Dwelling Units
<br />Existing Added Projected
<br />Township 1998 98 -30 2030
<br />Little River
<br />1,201
<br />1,300
<br />2,501
<br />Cedar Grove
<br />1,930
<br />1,573
<br />3,503
<br />Cheeks
<br />2,748
<br />2,001
<br />4,749
<br />Mebane
<br />255
<br />148
<br />402
<br />Rural Cheeks
<br />2,493
<br />1,853
<br />4,347
<br />Hillsborough
<br />4,587
<br />1,745
<br />6,332
<br />Hillsborough
<br />1,895
<br />378
<br />2,273
<br />Rural H'boro
<br />2,692
<br />1,367
<br />4,059
<br />Eno
<br />2,773
<br />2,051
<br />4,824
<br />Bingham
<br />2,906
<br />2,007
<br />4,913
<br />Chapel Hill
<br />30,156
<br />14,980
<br />45,136
<br />Chapel Hill
<br />16,402
<br />7,178
<br />23,580
<br />Carrboro
<br />7,305
<br />4,029
<br />11,334
<br />Rural CH
<br />6,449
<br />3,772
<br />10,222
<br />TOTAL 46,301 25,656 71,958
<br />As evidenced in the above figure, if current
<br />residential development patterns continue
<br />58% of all new housing units will built in
<br />Chapel Hill township, as compared to 65%
<br />of the housing stock in existence today.
<br />Rural portions will encounter greater
<br />residential development, than in the past.
<br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999
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