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ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC
<br />CHANGE
<br />Orange County population growth is
<br />related to the number of employment
<br />opportunities available in the-County. As
<br />employment opportunities increase they
<br />attract new residents, thereby increasing the
<br />rate at which the population expands.
<br />Employment projections, through 2020,
<br />were obtained from Woods and Poole
<br />Economics, Inc., a Washington D.0 based
<br />economics consulting firm.' These,
<br />projections are based on the assumptions
<br />that: 1) employment opportunities in
<br />Orange County are impacted by shifts in
<br />the Triangle and national economy; and 2)
<br />Orange County employers will react to
<br />economic changes in a similar ar manner as
<br />they have in the past. To be consistent with
<br />the 30 year planning horizon (2000-2030)
<br />adopted by the SOCF Task Force, forecasts
<br />were extended until 2030. In extending
<br />Woods & Poole data staff assumed that
<br />County employers (public, private and non-
<br />profit) would experience the same average
<br />net growth in employment between 2021-
<br />2030 as occurred from 2011-2020.
<br />Employment
<br />During the next 32 years approximately
<br />33,623 jobs are projected to be added mi
<br />Orange County.This is lower than the total
<br />number of jobs (46,176) added during the
<br />28 years prior to 1997.
<br />Figure 1: Employees Added
<br />Total Employment 46,176 33,623
<br />The additional jobs will not substantially
<br />alter the make-up of , the . County's.
<br />employment base. State and Local
<br />Government, will remain the primary
<br />employer in the County, accounting for 36%
<br />of all County employees in 2030, compared
<br />to 38% in 1998. The service and retail
<br />sectors will employ the next, largest
<br />percentage of - workers, 21% and 17%
<br />respectively.
<br />The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate,
<br />Transportation and Utilities sector, and
<br />Wholesale Trade will cumulatively account
<br />for the next largest percentage of workers in
<br />2030 (15%) This is in contrast to 1998 when
<br />these sectors accounted for approximately
<br />12% of all employees. Unlike other sectors
<br />of the economy, firms in these three sectors
<br />will add more workers over the next thirty-
<br />two years than they did in the past 28.
<br />Population
<br />Orange County's population (includes
<br />towns) will grow by an average of 1.45 %
<br />annually between 1998 and 2030. While
<br />slower than the rate of growth experienced
<br />by the County between 1950- 1998 (2.50%),
<br />this growth will add an additional 65,850
<br />persons or 25,566 households to the
<br />County. By 2030, the County's total
<br />population is projected to number 178,740
<br />persons, or 69,620 households.
<br />Figure 2: Orange County Population
<br />1998 2030
<br />Population growth over the next 32 years
<br />will noticeably change the demographic
<br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999
<br />1969-1997
<br />1998-2030
<br />Construction
<br />1,661
<br />717
<br />Manufacturing
<br />2,262
<br />1,459
<br />Transport, etc.
<br />1,291
<br />1,465
<br />Wholesale
<br />1,136
<br />1,346
<br />Retail .
<br />8,064
<br />6,044
<br />Finance, etc.
<br />4,083
<br />4,555
<br />Service
<br />11,643
<br />6,622
<br />State/Local Gov't
<br />15,678
<br />10,948
<br />Total Employment 46,176 33,623
<br />The additional jobs will not substantially
<br />alter the make-up of , the . County's.
<br />employment base. State and Local
<br />Government, will remain the primary
<br />employer in the County, accounting for 36%
<br />of all County employees in 2030, compared
<br />to 38% in 1998. The service and retail
<br />sectors will employ the next, largest
<br />percentage of - workers, 21% and 17%
<br />respectively.
<br />The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate,
<br />Transportation and Utilities sector, and
<br />Wholesale Trade will cumulatively account
<br />for the next largest percentage of workers in
<br />2030 (15%) This is in contrast to 1998 when
<br />these sectors accounted for approximately
<br />12% of all employees. Unlike other sectors
<br />of the economy, firms in these three sectors
<br />will add more workers over the next thirty-
<br />two years than they did in the past 28.
<br />Population
<br />Orange County's population (includes
<br />towns) will grow by an average of 1.45 %
<br />annually between 1998 and 2030. While
<br />slower than the rate of growth experienced
<br />by the County between 1950- 1998 (2.50%),
<br />this growth will add an additional 65,850
<br />persons or 25,566 households to the
<br />County. By 2030, the County's total
<br />population is projected to number 178,740
<br />persons, or 69,620 households.
<br />Figure 2: Orange County Population
<br />1998 2030
<br />Population growth over the next 32 years
<br />will noticeably change the demographic
<br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999
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