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WHAT IS THE BASELINE SCENARIO? <br />The Baseline Scenario is a projection of <br />future community, economic and physical <br />development trends in Orange County to <br />the year 2030. <br />It has been developed on the premise that <br />future economic, community and physical <br />development in the County will occur at the <br />same rate and pattern as it has during the <br />past 30 years (or other past trends <br />depending on data availability). <br />WHO DEVELOPED THE BASELINE? <br />Staff from the Orange County Planning <br />department - and the Orange County <br />Environment and Resource Conservation <br />Department worked together to develop <br />this baseline. Information in the baseline <br />comes from a variety of sources and <br />agencies both within and outside the <br />County. <br />WHY WAS IT DEVELOPED? <br />The baseline was developed for use by the <br />Shaping Orange County's Future (SOCF) <br />Task Force in evaluating future <br />development - patterns and identifying <br />trends they desire to retain and/or change. <br />The Task Force is using the baseline, in <br />conjunction with the Orange Counhj Profile, <br />committee reports, & adopted SOCF goals <br />and values in crafting alternative scenarios <br />that conform to SOCF goals and values. <br />WHAT ARE ITS LIMITATIONS? <br />Projections have been limited to those areas <br />for which historical data exists. Data gaps <br />have been filled through extrapolation or by <br />reliance on qualitative estimations of past <br />and present development patterns. <br />In keeping with a goal of projecting based <br />on past trends, the baseline does not take <br />into account future policy choices. Thus <br />projections of population and dwelling unit <br />growth for municipalities, particularly <br />Mebane and Hillsborough, do not reflect <br />changes in . policy that , may stimulate <br />development activity beyond past levels or <br />into new urban areas. <br />It is important to note that these limits do <br />not reduce the value of the baseline as a <br />tool. The baseline should be understood 'as <br />one estimation of future development <br />trends. Actual patterns of development may <br />differ given policy or market forces, but the <br />overall trends identified in the baseline <br />reflect a possible picture of development. <br />activity over the next 30 years in Orange <br />County. <br />WHAT ARE THE FINDINGS? <br />Future community and physical <br />development patterns in the County will be <br />driven by population and employment <br />growth. This section will begin by <br />documenting the employment and <br />demographic changes projected to occur <br />during the next three decades, if present <br />trends continue. It will conclude by <br />detailing the impacts that these changes <br />could have upon Orange County. <br />April 1999 <br />