Agenda - 04-14-1999 - 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

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To: Roger Waldon From: Alan Rimer Cc Ed Kerwin/Ed Holland Date 02/17/99 Re: Town of Chapel Hill Build-out Because of on trio. | will be unable to plan Work Group (CPVG) - | mentioned in my voice neU iwould like to share with you, and the CpVG, some concerns |have regarding the projections that are being considered for the future population of Chapel Hill. At a recent OVVASANab/rol Resources /Technical Systems committee meeting we discussed population projections for the OVYAGAsen/ine area' In the oaunss of that discussion, we bhaMv touched on the current assumptions fbrthose projections. | have some concern that the assumptions we may be making eboutour projected build-out may not reflect the reality of our current zoning. Ifwedo not make the correct assumptions it will thus impact both our work on the CpVVG and (]VVAS/Ys long term water demand estimates. Here is my take on a potential problem which might exist based on my understanding of our position. We are currently stating that the oznmundv is at about 906 of full build-out. It would be my opinion that such a number is probably not quite correct. � such o number were not co�ect� could lead toenoneouaaasunpUona about ev��thmg from mw amount of water ^�~� service we must provide boschoo|s ` �anapo�oflon ' police andfire services, and all other essential public services. |f| understand the situation correctly, vvehave two considerations when making population projections: a) making projections for that land which is currently undeveloped and can support whatever development it is zoned for, and b) projections fbrthat|andwhichks currently built upon, but not bz the potential cf ifs current zoning classmcati on. Condition ha> is straight 5zrward projection. Condition 0b' > is a bit more challenging. For example, an area may be zoned R4, but is currently b/outat R2' If such were the case, with in+fil|. additional dwelling units could be constructed on that property without much recourse by the Town. For example, if we assume that the maximum dwelling units in R2 is 4 and that in R4 is 10 the delta of six units could skew the possible build-out population. This anokm�.V ev6nrnarginaUvconnc�' |�sihetvvecou|dgnzwa|otrnoreUhon'ust1Oq6w�hds attendant public policy �auaa' |thinkvv~ should dz 'bui|d-outana�s�baaedonwhet�dle'currenLs{tuation. This will then help to focus our discussion about what va might wentbr ch on�e to bring what we want see in the future more into line with reality. This might well result in modifications of the current zoning. ' On a related matter, it would be useful to have Uze consultants help us to visualize what some of the devo|opnentonenoh—o might look like. They apparently have some superb skills inthis area and some 3-U models that might help the CpVG to visualize more dense anaoa would be quite useful. To that end. | also think d would ba useful boamsngeforthaCPVVGbospenda|itUehmehonna||y|ookingetwhetthoVVorkG»oup members thought were good and bad about the community.