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as many as 400 dwelling units per year over the next 27 years might be added. This
<br />would result in 10,800 additional units for a total of 28,200 units housing 70,500 people.
<br />Low End Projection
<br />Alternatively, our projections might end up being overestimate. Assume that the
<br />economy weakens, and/or that interest rates soar like they did in the 1970's. During that
<br />period, the slowest growth era of the last 25 years, the average number of new units
<br />added per year was 150. Assuming that slowest pace over the next 27 years, the area
<br />would net an addition of 4050 new units. This would mean a 2025 total of 21,450 units,
<br />housing a population of 53,625.
<br />SUMMARY
<br />The following table summarizes these estimates for the Chapel Hill Urban Services Area:
<br />(150 units /yr) (275 units /yr) (400 units /yr)
<br />We believe that our 2025 projection of 24,800 dwelling units housing a population of
<br />67,600 is reasonable and realistic. We believe the theoretical maximum is not attainable.
<br />POSTCRIPT - - GROWTH OF UNC STUDENT BODY
<br />We note that discussions are underway to raise the enrollment of the UNC student body.
<br />There are many "unknowns" in these discussions, including what the number of
<br />additional students might be, how many of those students might be undergraduate vs.
<br />graduate students, and the timing of expansion. The population projections discussed
<br />above do not incorporate the assumption of a growth in student enrollment.
<br />We suggest the following ideas for adding student enrollment to the projections:
<br />• Assume 6,000 additional students
<br />• Assume that 4,000 of the students will be undergraduates, with additional dormitory
<br />rooms provided.
<br />Under these assumptions, we would suggest adding 4,000 to the population figures across
<br />the board for the low, main, and high projections. There would be no addition to the
<br />number of dwelling units for these 4,000, since group quarters are not included in the
<br />dwelling unit counts.
<br />M
<br />1998 Estimate
<br />2025 Low End
<br />Projection
<br />2025
<br />Projection
<br />2025 High End
<br />Projection
<br />Theoretical
<br />Maximum
<br /># Dwellings
<br />17,400
<br />21,450
<br />24,800
<br />28,200
<br />44,125
<br />Population
<br />45,000
<br />53,625
<br />67,600
<br />70,500
<br />110,000
<br />(150 units /yr) (275 units /yr) (400 units /yr)
<br />We believe that our 2025 projection of 24,800 dwelling units housing a population of
<br />67,600 is reasonable and realistic. We believe the theoretical maximum is not attainable.
<br />POSTCRIPT - - GROWTH OF UNC STUDENT BODY
<br />We note that discussions are underway to raise the enrollment of the UNC student body.
<br />There are many "unknowns" in these discussions, including what the number of
<br />additional students might be, how many of those students might be undergraduate vs.
<br />graduate students, and the timing of expansion. The population projections discussed
<br />above do not incorporate the assumption of a growth in student enrollment.
<br />We suggest the following ideas for adding student enrollment to the projections:
<br />• Assume 6,000 additional students
<br />• Assume that 4,000 of the students will be undergraduates, with additional dormitory
<br />rooms provided.
<br />Under these assumptions, we would suggest adding 4,000 to the population figures across
<br />the board for the low, main, and high projections. There would be no addition to the
<br />number of dwelling units for these 4,000, since group quarters are not included in the
<br />dwelling unit counts.
<br />M
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