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ALTERNATE SCENARIOS <br />High End Pro[ectio <br />In response to the Rimer and Brewer memoranda, we have done additional work on these <br />projections. We continue to believe that the projections published in the Data Book, <br />noted above, and currently being incorporated into OWASA's planning effort, are our <br />best estimates and are a reasonable projection for the future. We note, as we stated <br />above, that the rate at which infill and redevelopment activity occurs can affect the future <br />number of dwelling units, possibly driving the figures higher. <br />In pursuit of this idea, and at the request of the Work Group, we have developed a pair of <br />numbers that represents a "theoretical maximum" number of dwelling units and <br />population for the Chapel Hill Urban Services Area. We believe that these numbers are <br />not achievable because of natural, regulatory, and market considerations, but the numbers <br />may be useful in establishing an upper end of sorts, even if it is an unrealistic upper end. <br />To accomplish this, we took all of the area zoned residential (approximately 80% of the <br />total land area), and broke the area down by zoning district. Then we took the regulatory, <br />theoretical maximum density for each zoning district, assumed that every parcel of land <br />within each district would be developed to that maximum, and added it up. The result is <br />a theoretical maximum of 44,125 dwelling units, housing a population of 110,000. (A <br />table showing the number of acres in each type of zoning district in Chapel Hill is <br />attached). <br />The reason that these figures are unattainable is that the theoretical calculation takes no <br />account of any constraining factors. Examples: <br />• No account for floodplains or difficult topography. <br />• No account for overlay zoning districts such as the Resource Conservation District. <br />• No account for non - residential uses in residential zones, such as schools, day care <br />centers, churches. <br />• Assumes that every residential lot in Town that is above the minimum will be <br />subdivided to add dwellings. <br />• Assumes that every multi - family development in Town that is below the maximum <br />density will be either torn down or expanded to come up to the maximum. <br />• No account for difficulty in gaining approvals for such redevelopment. <br />If not this theoretical maximum, what would be a reasonable "high end" projection? If <br />our best guess turns out to be an underestimate, how high might we get by 202? <br />We believe that a reasonable alternate, high -end projection would be to assume that <br />average rate of growth we have been experiencing over the past decade, instead of <br />beginning to slow, might instead accelerate. Under this scenario, one might project that <br />