Agenda - 04-14-1999 - 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

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SUMMARY OF DATA PUBLISHED TO DATE In our Data Book, we offered the following key figures: ® 1998 estimate: #. dwelling units in Chapel Hill: 17,400 ® 1998 estimate: Chapel Hill population: 45,000 1998 estimate: % of land in Chapel Hill Area that is developed: 90% • 2025 projection: # dwelling units in Chapel Hill: 24,800 ® 2025 projection: Chapel Hill population: 67,600 ® 2025 projection: % of land in Chapel Hill Area that is developed: 100% DISCUSSION OF PUBLISHED PROJECTIONS We note that a statement that "Chapel Hill is 90% developed" has been repeated often during discussions about the Comprehensive Plan. We want to point out that when we use that phrase, we mean that 90% of the land in the urban service area has development on it, that 10% is currently undeveloped. This does not mean that we have achieved 90% of the development that we will ever see. As can be seen by the above figures, we are projecting that, by the year 2025, our population will grow by about 50 %. The reason that our "amount of developed land" will grow by only 10 %, but that we expect our population to grow by 50 %, is that we expect that infill and redevelopment activity will be taking place as undeveloped land becomes ever more scarce. An additional factor to note is that the University's Horace Williams property is not counted as part of the 10% of land that is available for development, but we have included assumptions about residential development on the Horace Williams property in our population projections. The question of how much infill and redevelopment activity will take place, and at what pace, involves educated guesses. Our 2025 projections are based on what we believe is a reasonable and realistic scenario: that by the year 2025, all of the undeveloped land in the Chapel Hill Urban Services Area will be developed, and some of the land that is currently developed at very low intensity will be redeveloped. To arrive at our projection, we looked at each of approximately 20 different areas of Chapel Hill - - looking at existing land use, existing zoning, and development trends - and made our best assessment about how many more additional dwelling units might exist in each zone at buildout. Considering the 27 years between now and the year 2025, we are projecting the addition of 7,400 dwelling units. This would be the equivalent of adding approximately 275 units per year. This figure is slightly lower than our recent historical trends. (During the last eight years, Chapel Hill added an average of just over 300 units per year). This projection is in line with our expectation is that, as land becomes ever more scarce, the average number of units added per year is likely to begin dropping. 9