Agenda - 04-14-1999 - 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

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3 `tea Cep -70 "MU Scenario Process FUTURE What is a scenario? Scenarios are stories of the future. They provide a way to innovatively think about the future and the results of current and future policies, or lack there of. The purpose of the scenario process is to create a bridge from the goals and objectives of the Task Force to recommendations. Baseline and Alternative Scenarios The SOCF scenario process will involve creation of two types of scenarios. Firstly, SOCF staff has created a baseline scenario broken down into three parts covering 1) Environment/Management of Growth, 2) Economy, and 3) Community. This '"baseline" (or "null') scenario is one that plays out the future using current trends and policies. This scenario is a picture of what Orange County could be like in 30 years given the current rates. of growth, the current state of the economy, and all other current trends. The data used to develop this .scenario is based on the findings reported in the Orange County Profile (a status and trends databook created by SOCF staff) and one projections done by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. It is important to remember when reading the "'**baseline" scenario that while it has a relevant factual basis, predicting and extrapolating data to the future is not a perfect science. A limitation of the '"baseline" scenario is that it is an extrapolation of current trends, and therefore does not account for future changes in trends, or alternative policy choices to alter the future. For consistency, staff has attempted to project the future true to this concept, even when imminent or expected changes could alter the future. Even with these caveats, the "baseline" is a useful tool to initiate thinking about the implications of action in the. future. The "baseline" scenario has been used by the Task Force as an evaluative staffing point for treating their own alternative scenarios or stories of what the future could be. The alternative scenarios created by the Task Force are different from the "baseline" in that the process works back from visualizing what the future should be, and then describing how that future can be achieved. The Alternative Scenario Building Process In December and January -a small subgroup of 'task Force members met with Orange County and Dispute Settlement Center -staff to design the scenario building process. The agreed upon process involved the Task Force breaking down into three -small groups, with any interested citizens also involved. At three Task Force meetings in February and March staff presented the three parts of the "baseline" scenario for the groups to react to. Each group evaluated what they liked and did not like about the "baseline"' scenario, and then started to brainstorm how they would like the future to be different from that described by the baseline scenario. Thus, the 'baseline" is being used by the Task Force, along with the information in the Orange County Profile, previous committee -reports, and SOCFs adopted goals and values in creating alternative visions or scenarios of what the future of the County could be like. By May each of the three work groups will have finished creating their alternative scenario, and will present it to the Task Force. The Task Force will then forge the preferred parts of these scenarios into one "preferred" scenario. Further input from the governing boards and citizens will be sought at this point to refine the vision and garner support and consensus.