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Executive Summary I <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2008 -09 School Year — Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [ (n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />projection was high comp ared to the actual. <br />Year Projection Made for 2008 -09 Membership <br />Actual 2008 <br />2003 <br />2004 <br />2005 <br />2006 <br />2007 <br />2006 <br />Membership <br />2008 <br />2004 <br />2005 <br />2006 <br />2007 <br />Elementary <br />3165 <br />3185 20 <br />3263 98 <br />3182 17 <br />3170 5 <br />3245 80 <br />Middle <br />1601 <br />1 1633 [321 <br />1609 [81 <br />1592 9 <br />1604 [31 <br />1617 r161 <br />High <br />2242 <br />1 2082 (160) <br />2160 [ (82) <br />2162 (80 )] <br />2203 (39) <br />2223 (19 <br />D. Student Growth Rate ................ ............................ (Change) .......... Pg. 38 <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................( Change)...........Pg. 41 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />A `Joint Action Committee' (language used in original MOU) met in November 2005 to discuss <br />Elementary level K -3 class size reductions related to legislation from the North Carolina <br />Department of Public Instruction. The Committee recommended that capacity changes be <br />implemented equally in both school districts when Morris Grove Elementary opened, which <br />occurred this school year. <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School District <br />A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 101.1 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a lesser rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary School #10 (Morris Grove Elementary) opened in <br />August 2008. <br />D. Due partially to reduced class size capacities going into effect in 2008 with the opening <br />of Morris Grove Elementary, the projections are showing a need for Elementary School <br />#11 in 2010 -11 by a projected overcapacity of 26 students. <br />ii <br />Average Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years <br />Chapel Hili/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />2004 <br />2005 <br />2006 <br />2007 <br />2008 <br />2004 <br />2005 <br />2006 <br />2007 <br />2008 <br />Elementary <br />1.79% <br />1.95% <br />2.03% <br />1.85% <br />1.5% <br />1.68% <br />1.60% <br />1.49% <br />1.84% <br />1.16% <br />Middle <br />1.91% <br />2.41% <br />2.35% <br />2.58% <br />2.03% <br />1.50% <br />1.18% <br />1.420A <br />1.78% <br />1.44% <br />High <br />2.04% <br />1.95% <br />2.04% <br />2.31% <br />2.21% <br />1 1.21% <br />0.92% <br />0.98% <br />1.49% <br />1.0% <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................( Change)...........Pg. 41 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />A `Joint Action Committee' (language used in original MOU) met in November 2005 to discuss <br />Elementary level K -3 class size reductions related to legislation from the North Carolina <br />Department of Public Instruction. The Committee recommended that capacity changes be <br />implemented equally in both school districts when Morris Grove Elementary opened, which <br />occurred this school year. <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School District <br />A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 101.1 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a lesser rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary School #10 (Morris Grove Elementary) opened in <br />August 2008. <br />D. Due partially to reduced class size capacities going into effect in 2008 with the opening <br />of Morris Grove Elementary, the projections are showing a need for Elementary School <br />#11 in 2010 -11 by a projected overcapacity of 26 students. <br />ii <br />