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Section II <br />High School <br />The previous year (2007) projection for November 2008 for this level was overestimated by 65 <br />students. The actual membership decreased by -5. Over the previous seven (7) years, change <br />has varied from a high of 199 students to this year's loss of 5 students. Actual real estate market <br />conditions can suppress historical and mathematical trends, which is likely the case in all three <br />school levels within the school system. This year's projection projects a need for additional <br />capacity in 2016 -17, which is one year later than the need projected last year. Additional High <br />School capacity is expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School from 800 <br />students to 1,200 students, as was included in the construction plans for the high school. <br />Orange County School District <br />Elementary <br />The previous year (2007) projection for November 2008 at this level was overestimated by 80 <br />students. The actual membership increased by 7 students. Over the previous seven (7) years, <br />this level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from -185 to +8 to +44 to +71 to — <br />10 to +66 to +86 and +7 students a year. This created a historical base of negative growth which <br />was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth projections. In <br />the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential <br />development than in the Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of <br />new families in older, regentrified housing stock. Therefore, development activity should be <br />monitored off -line as a harbinger to student growth on a more equal level to historically based <br />mathematical models. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10- <br />year projection period. However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in <br />the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. In addition, OCS is placing a heavy <br />emphasis on Pre -K programming which may also impact capacity at district elementary schools. <br />In 2007, State Statutes were amended so that effective the 2009 -2010 school year, children <br />entering kindergarten must be five years old by August 31 st of the year starting school, versus <br />the current statewide policy date of October 16th. For the 2009 -2010 school year, this will result <br />31 <br />