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Executive Summary <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2008-09 School Year—Orange County Schools <br /> (The number in brackets[n]is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br /> within the brackets [(n)]indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br /> projection was high comp aced to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2008-09 Membership <br /> Actual 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3165 3185 20 3263 [981 3182 [171 3170 5 3245 80 <br /> Middle 1601 1 1633 [321 1609 [81 1592 (9)] 1604 131 1617 16 " <br /> High 2242 1 2082 (160) 2160 (82)] 2162 (80) 2203 39) 2223 19)] <br /> D. Student Growth Rate............................................(Change)..........Pg. 38 <br /> Average Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years <br /> Chapel HUMCarrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 <br /> Elementary 1.79% 1.95% 2.03% 1.85% 1.5% 1.68% 1.60% 1.49% 1.84% 1.16% <br /> Middle 1.91% 2.41% 2.35% 2.58% 2.03% 1.50% 1.18% 1.42% 1.78% 1.44% <br /> High 2.04% 1.95% 2.04% 2.31% 2.21% 1.21% 0.92% 0.98% 1.49% 1 1.0% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate....................(Change)...........Pg. 41 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> A `Joint Action Committee' (language used in original MOIL)met in November 2005 to discuss <br /> Elementary level K-3 class size reductions related to legislation from the North Carolina <br /> Department of Public Instruction. The Committee recommended that capacity changes be <br /> implemented equally in both school districts when Morris Grove Elementary opened,which r <br /> occurred this school year. <br /> CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School District <br /> A. Does not exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 101.1%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a lesser rate over the <br /> next 10 years. -`- <br /> C. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary School#10(Morris Grove Elementary)opened in <br /> August 2008. <br /> D. Due partially to reduced class size capacities going into effect in 2008 with the opening <br /> of Morris Grove Elementary, the projections are showing a need for Elementary School <br /> #11 in 2010-11 by a projected overcapacity of 26 students. <br /> ii <br />