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<br /> OCS Student Projections(1) ^wmpbaW Orange County Budget On. h
<br /> 02/202008
<br /> nausea by Panning on 2120/09,625,08 O
<br /> Elementary
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009.10 1 2010.11 2011.12 2012.13 2013.14 2014.15 2015-16 2018-17 2017-18
<br /> Actual 3,078 lit ®'-t M11:1131.1130 3.006 MINILEIIIIESEI I--.-4
<br /> Tocnler' 3219 3281 3,342 3,404 3465 3,527 3,588 ,650 3711 3,772
<br /> OC Planning 3.244 3,337 3432 3,531 3.633 3,707 3,766 3,826 3888 3,951
<br /> 10 Year Gr06l" 3.247 3.335 3.370 3,447 3,547 3682 3,618 3,654 3691 3,728
<br /> 5 Year Growth 325g 3,357 3,391 3,472 3569 3604 3,640 3,677 3713 3751
<br /> 3 Year Growth 3,257 3,353 3,389 3,468 3,566 3601 3637 3674 3710 3747
<br /> Aver• NIf_LUIIIIIELF.a=E=ESE 1111111Elr!n111111EX::1E1 :1 -7
<br /> Annual • -Increase Decrease In Actual&Pr.cited 111111111111111111■11111111■21© II_ 111111111111111111111CFalIMEl11111111111[?]•1111111i!111111111W]11111111111C:111111111111C1•1111111rA 46 47
<br /> Ca•ci •100%Level of Service 3820 11111XECINEXICIIMMIIIMEILECI�" 1E111111303911 3 '7ET. EXMINI .I1=x?'1W 1© 3694 3694
<br /> Number of Students Actual and Pro acted Over U •- 100%LOS 4..,;1111111122111MIDIMENEMINE■1111111M•111311•11111111:1611MEMIIIIIIIIELHIMIREI1111111102111111111117.A11111MRIMIIIIIIIKII 49 96
<br /> 105%Level of Service 4.11 MCIIIMINCEMINCLUMMOIMINKIENOMKNEEh _�]��Y-01� ]E]jy1�F,j �ry] 3878
<br /> Number of Students,Actual and Protected,Over(Under)105%LOS ���� ME101���1�QLH EE1�Mf�::r�iL)1 '• 80
<br /> Actual-%level of Service 80.6% 78.3%
<br /> .vere.e eve 0 e/0 Ce '1t•:rNi:1MILj(:yMMILi;.1 rgi
<br /> ry i' 4
<br /> ■ v IxltliborW 100 new seats itlkbor0uph Bemmoy
<br /> indicates first year that 091601 surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service
<br /> ' It is important to note that this reflects the November 15,2007 date of membership as outlined In by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance.
<br /> .The TisnNer Model provides for the"Linear Method"of projections for both CHCCS and OCS.Original projections used in prior years projection models included the"Linear Extrapolation Method'for CHCCS.
<br /> "':Annual growth rate calculated using actual membership for years 2000-01 through 2007-08 and average membership for years 2008-09 thr0ugh 2017-18
<br /> ''Class sizes for grades K3=123 for school years 2000 through 2008-09.In accordance with 2005 School Collaboration Work Group direction,with planned opening of CHCCS Elementary X10 in school year 2008-09,K3 class sizes for school years after 2008-09
<br /> Middle
<br /> • hoof ear qe,, imYISt{.1• . . rFh61; ,,,!.,,.... •bL61ib .,..Si...51, �jjj� a5rJE LSfa .17.18
<br /> Actual 1,504 �,,,-•-.1 •1,680
<br /> Tischler 1,669 1.701 1,733 1,764 1 796 1828 1,:?. 1 89 1.9 4 1956
<br /> OC Panning 1.644 1,672' 1701 1,731 1.762 1.793 1,842 1,892 1,844 1,967
<br /> 10 Year Growth 1,580 1671 1632_ 1.664 1673 1691 1,752 1,837 1,856 1874
<br /> 5 Year Growth 1,598 1,605- 1,689 1,731 1756 1774 1,843 1,927 1,946 1,966
<br /> 3 Year Groh" 1586 -.,606 1,689 1,732 1753 1773 1840 1,525 1944 1964
<br /> -Incneac 1• tr-73 7. ,u:-.- 1 •7 1831 1689 1724 1 1 .z 1 1923 1951 i
<br /> why-100%Level of Service 1,486�� - -- - 2,188 2,166 2,166 2168 CIE;1..'1�� 2166
<br /> Number of Students Actual and P •Over U • 100%LOS 38 . - 418`0]x )1 -
<br /> 1,7%Level ofSondes 1569 IIIIIEE IIIIINIEIMME/IIIMIFZ1IMIUIII•1lLv,E]E{LIi#hSFs7Fif VSissjj]MII1ME:ZyjJIIIE.UC1�,:j11 2318
<br /> Number• Actual and Projected,Over(Under)107% ..- 6 102 - 2 '( ••'1.11 61 01 •MiQ}1illfftPJ1llIIIIEIMti.31
<br /> Actual-%Level of Service 102.6% 1042% 1113% 1140% 108.7% 108.5% 729 75.:
<br /> Aver�adgge •%Level of 5ervce
<br /> Afiftitel SWeem •9001 hats(4) `• 681 2.45% •4,67% 41.19% -0,63% 3.61% -1.211% 0.64%_ 3.54% 2.11% 1.37% 1.39% 3.14% 3.66% 1.49% 1.49%•
<br /> piddle school e3 opens In fat 2006.rah 700 addennal seats
<br /> indicates first year that district surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service
<br /> '' 11 is.mportant to note that the reflects the November 15,2007 date of membership as outlined in by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance.It does not include CHCCS Students attending the Hospital School.
<br /> 11 The Tischler Model provides for the"Linear Method"of projections for both CHCCS and OCS.Original projections used in poor years projection models included the'Linear Extrapolation Method-for CHCCS.
<br /> ''Annual growth rate calculated using actual membership for years 2000-01 through 2007-08 and average membership for years 2006-09 through 2017-18
<br /> High
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 200940 2010.11 2013.12 2012.13 2013.14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 1 2017.18
<br /> Actual 1,672 1.753 1,828 1.887 2.057 2,124 2.184 2.201
<br /> Tischler` 2244 2.287 2,329 2,372 2,415 2,458 2,501 2,544 2,586 2.629
<br /> OC Planning 2258 2,293 2.328 2,364 2,401 2.471 2,543 2.618 2.694 2.773
<br /> 10 Year Growth 2,193 2.133 2,103 2,078 2,039 2,108 2.128 2,129 2215 2,253
<br /> S Year Growth 2,205' 2,195 2201 2204 2,186 2.286 2.325 2,346 2,444 2.488
<br /> 3 Year Growth 2.217 2.211 2.223 2229 2.209 2,309 2.352 2,369 2.466 2.512
<br /> Avenge 2,223 2,224 2,237 2,249 2,250 2,326 2,370 2,461 2,481 2,511
<br /> Annual Change•Increase(D5enase)in Actual&Projected Membership) 81 75 59 17. 67 80 17 22 0 13 13 1 76 43 31 80 50
<br /> Capacity-100%Level of Service 1,518 1,518 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,533 2,513
<br /> Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS 154 235 i
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