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Section II <br /> High School <br /> The previous year(2007)projection for November 2008 for this level was overestimated by 65 <br /> students. The actual membership decreased by-5. Over the previous seven(7) years, change <br /> has varied from a high of 199 students to this year's loss of 5 students. Actual real estate market <br /> conditions can suppress historical and mathematical trends,which is likely the case in all three <br /> school levels within the school system. This year's projection projects a need for additional <br /> capacity in 2016-17,which is one year later than the need projected last year. Additional High <br /> School capacity is expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School from 800 <br /> students to 1,200 students, as was included in the construction plans for the high school. <br /> Orange County School District <br /> Elementary <br /> The previous year(2007)projection for November 2008 at this level was overestimated by 80 <br /> students. The actual membership increased by 7 students. Over the previous seven(7) years, <br /> this level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from-185 to+8 to+44 to+71 to— <br /> 10 to +66 to+86 and+7 students a year. This created a historical base of negative growth which <br /> was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth projections. In <br /> the Orange County school system,historic growth is more closely related to new residential <br /> development than in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,which has a sizeable number of <br /> new families in older,regentrified housing stock. Therefore,development activity should be <br /> monitored off-line as a harbinger to student growth on a more equal level to historically based <br /> • mathematical models. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10- <br /> year projection period. However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in <br /> the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. In addition, OCS is placing a heavy <br /> emphasis on Pre-K programming which may also impact capacity at district elementary schools. <br /> In 2007, State Statutes were amended so that effective the 2009-2010 school year, children <br /> entering kindergarten must be five years old by August 31st of the year starting school,versus <br /> the current statewide policy date of October 16th. For the 2009-2010 school year,this will result <br /> 31 <br />