Agenda - 03-17-2009 - 4k - Laserfiche WebLink

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STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS coo n N O. PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS ti Tischler Unea4OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection YYI(c'b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth CHCC4 ye projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;ere projection years • BYM+(BYI+S(n))at EYM EYM*%SL=EYM!SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; SYM base year 2nd month membership;BYl=yearstudent membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership increases In housing growth;reflects bugdout membership per school level(is,elementary,middle,high);EYMlSLgnsuing year member by school level constraints BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%8L=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school BYM_base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearatudent membership Increment dec e in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM�rhsuing year membership;n=projection year,%SL=96 of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(Le.elementary,middle,high);EYM/SLeensuing year member by school level buildout constraints K,=k.1+(k„.t'0.01) Mathematical forrrarta that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a(E Gn I g,,.r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n4 kindergarten grade level;assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed beg Rr(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=ldndergarten membership;nolven school year;G-giver grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates manthership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership,asaverage advancement rate;b=proje led membership K,=k„.r+(k,.1*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a(E G./g,,.r)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b9.441) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records Kelrindergarten membership;n=given school year;G-given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates mem bership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership K,=kmr+(k„.+"(1.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 I CO advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E G„/g,.r)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the 10 year CohorttIOCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level;assumes the same CHCCq, projected membership by school level;an assumed • b=g an(a) percentage of students in each grade level fD kindergarten membership is based on birth records Kgindergarten membership;negiven school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average Il W • advancement rate;b=projected membership c c