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Section II <br /> B. Student Projection Methodology <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended <br /> by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee <br /> (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br /> 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future <br /> years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary,Middle <br /> and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific <br /> time(November 15)in the school year. These methods are also known as `models'. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> Presently,the average of five models are being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year <br /> history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear <br /> Wave and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of <br /> each model. <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its <br /> prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the <br /> annual Capital Investment Plan(CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and <br /> construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows <br /> the performance of the models for the 2008-9 school year from the prior year projection. <br /> 5. Recommendation — <br /> Seven(7) years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy of the results <br /> is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in <br /> the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models but projected future <br /> growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is <br /> not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The <br /> system is updated in November of each year,becoming part of the historical projection base. <br /> This is especially pertinPxit in the Orange County School District which serves students living _. <br /> within the Orange County portion of the City of Mebane which had had little historic <br /> enrollment impact. The significant proposed residential growth occurring within Mebane's <br /> jurisdiction has yet to be fully entered into the historically based projection methods. <br /> 19 <br />